Coppock curves + moving averages for government bonds

<body><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td> <font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> Momentum </p> <p> </p> </font mstheme> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td valign="top" width="1%"><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> </p> </font mstheme></td><td valign="top" width="24"></td><td valign="top"> <p>This page uses frames, but your browser doesn't support them. </p> <p><strong><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2">Bonds: Momentum</font></strong></p> <p><strong><em><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#00FF00">Buy on the up arrows,</font><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2"> </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">sell on the down arrows</font></em></strong></p> <p><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><strong>Based on the idea that the trend is your friend, this tool generates Buy & Sell signals using price action alone, depending only on information available at the time. It relies on analysis of annual rates of change and moving averages. For comparability, government bond indexes  have been rebased to set year-end 1994 at 100. </strong></font></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><font color="#C0C0C0">In each chart the bond price index is shown by </font><font color="#FFFFFF">the bold white line</font></font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> on the right hand axis. The moving average is represented by </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><font color="#FFFFFF">the thin white line</font><font color="#C0C0C0"> alongside on the same axis. The main explanatory variable, the momentum indicator, is </font><font color="#FFFF00">the tbin yellow line</font></font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> in yellow using the left hand axis. Buy & Sell signals are represented by </font><font color="#FF0000" face="Arial Narrow" size="2">red arrows</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> embedded in the price index.</font></strong></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>This investment tool is based on the observation that the psychological effect of a shock takes about a year to wear off. Known as the Coppock Indicator, after the man who successfully applied the concept for forecasting the US stock market over many decades, this momentum indicator is designed to generate buy signals. In statistical terms momentum is defined here as a 12-month time-weighted moving average of monthly changes. Buy signals are generated when the rate of change turns up from a level below the zero line, as shown by up arrows. </strong></font></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>However, owing to the different character of market peaks, the Coppock Indicator has been supplemented by a Moving Average Indicator for generating sell signals. These arise when the government bonds index falls below its moving average, while above the Zero-line, as shown by down arrows.</strong></font></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Please note that, in order to provide users with a low-maintenance once-a-month service, signals at times of crisis may be late. Thus signals will be shown at month-end prices, rather than automatically on reaching targets during the month.</font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Owing to the conversion of legacy currencies into Euros, analysis is provided on a common bond market denominated in Euros, rather than for individual countries. Historical data is provided by creating synthetic GDP-weighted time-series for the component country bonds, expressed in the European Currency Unit.</font></strong></p> <hr color="#FF0000"> <p align="center"><font size="2">[ <a href="global_asset_allocation_sitemap.htm" target="_top">Site Map</a> ] [ <a href="index.htm" target="_top">Home</a> ]</font><font size="2" face="Arial"><br> </font><font size="2">[ <a href="Chart_Library.htm" target="_top">Chart Library</a> ] [ <a href="ChartLibrary_government_bond.htm" target="_top">Bond Charts</a> ]</font> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p align="left"><font face="Arial Narrow" size="1" color="#C0C0C0">Copyright © 1999 Professional Investment Tools Ltd., authorised by the Financial Securities Authority. An Independent Financial Adviser. Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, Corel Corp., FIBV, Global Financial Data, PIT, national governments and stock exchanges. Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However PIT does not guarantee this to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising. This is for information only and does not constitute a solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Last modified: December 12, 2001</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>.</strong></font></p> </font mstheme></td></tr></table></body>