Government Bonds: Chart Technical Analysis

This strategy generates Buy & Sell signals using price action alone, depending only on information available at the time. It combines three elements - annual rates of change, moving averages and divergence. Buy & sell signals are represented by red arrows embedded in the price index.
 
In each chart the bond market index is shown by the bold white line on the right hand axis. The moving average is represented by the thin white line alongside on the same axis. The explanatory variable, the momentum indicator, is the thin yellow line using the left hand axis.
 
For comparability, total return bond market indices have been rebased to set year-end 1994 at 100. Please note the differences between charts in the Bonds RouteMap and those for other RouteMaps. Since income is a major consideration for investment in bonds, bond market indices are shown as total return and not in terms of price only.
 
The first element is based on the observation that the psychological effect of a shock takes about a year to wear off. Known as the Coppock Indicator, after the man who successfully applied the concept for forecasting the US bond market over many decades, this momentum indicator is designed to generate buy signals. In statistical terms momentum is defined here as a time-weighted moving average of monthly changes. Buy signals are generated when the rate of change turns up from a level below zero line, as shown by up arrows.
 
However, owing to the different character of market peaks, the Coppock Indicator has been supplemented by a second element, which uses moving averages to generate sell signals. These arise when the bond market index falls below its moving average, while above zero, as shown by down arrows.
 
The third element is necessary to offset the possibility of trend-based charting strategies generating buy and sell signals at the worst possible times. To reduce this risk, our strategy therefore also includes an overbought / oversold component. By combining three proven components in one strategy, overall performance can often be dramatic.
 
Owing to the conversion of legacy currencies into Euros, analysis is provided on a common bond market denominated in Euros, rather than for individual countries. Historical data is provided by creating synthetic GDP-weighted time-series for the component currencies, expressed in the European Currency Unit.
 
Signals may be late at times of crisis, because they are based on month-end prices, rather than automatically on reaching targets during the month. Back-testing shows that this combination of three elements is more effective than reliance on a single charting technique.