Summary forecasts for government bonds

<body><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td> <font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> Summary </p> <p> </p> </font mstheme> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td valign="top" width="1%"><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> </p> </font mstheme></td><td valign="top" width="24"></td><td valign="top"> <p>This page uses frames, but your browser doesn't support them. </p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Bonds: Summary</font></strong></p> <p><strong><em><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#00FF00">Buy on the up arrows,</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">sell on the down arrows</font></em></strong></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>This tool is designed to summarise the key action-orientated features of other bond analysis tools, omitting explanations for those who just want to see the bottom line. It incorporates both momentum Buy & Sell signals as well as a proprietary econometric forecasting model created by PIT. For this summary tool, government bond indexes are shown on a total return basis, including income earned. For comparability, they have been rebased to set year-end 1994 at 100.</strong></font></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">In each chart the historic total return bond market index, the </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FFFFFF">thick white line</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">,  and the econometric forecast, </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">the thin orange line</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FFFF00">,</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">  are shown on the same scale and may be viewed from identical left- or right hand axis. The base level for the econometric forecast is the average for the bond market index over the last completed calendar year. Chart technical Buy & Sell signals are shown as </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">red arrows</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> embedded in the price series.</font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">The econometric model is based on equations, tested over 15 years of historical data, where the projections depend on consensus forecasts for inflation and GDP. </font></strong></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>Please note that the performance pattern of total return government bond indexes may be radically different from price-only bond indexes, owing to the substantial part of the total return represented by income. Thus Buy & Sell signals for total return indexes will not be the same as for price-only bond indexes.</strong></font></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Owing to the conversion of legacy currencies into Euros, analysis is provided on the common currency, rather than for individual countries. Historical data is provided by creating synthetic GDP-weighted time-series for the component individual country bonds, expressed in the European Currency Unit.</font></strong></p> <hr color="#FF0000"> <p align="center"><font size="2">[ <a href="global_asset_allocation_sitemap.htm" target="_top">Site Map</a> ] [ <a href="index.htm" target="_top">Home</a> ]</font><font size="2" face="Arial"><br> </font><font size="2">[ <a href="Chart_Library.htm" target="_top">Chart Library</a> ] [ <a href="ChartLibrary_government_bond.htm" target="_top">Bond Charts</a> ]</font> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p align="left"><font face="Arial Narrow" size="1" color="#C0C0C0">Copyright © 1999 Professional Investment Tools Ltd., authorised by the Financial Securities Authority. An Independent Financial Adviser. Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, Corel Corp., FIBV, Global Financial Data, PIT, national governments and stock exchanges. Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However PIT does not guarantee this to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising. This is for information only and does not constitute a solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Last modified: January 05, 2001</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>.</strong></font></p> </font mstheme></td></tr></table></body>