Seasonal trading patterns for government bonds

<body><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td> <font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> Seasonal Trader </p> <p> </p> </font mstheme> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td valign="top" width="1%"><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> </p> </font mstheme></td><td valign="top" width="24"></td><td valign="top"> <p>This page uses frames, but your browser doesn't support them. </p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Bonds: Seasonal Trader</font></strong></p> <p><strong><em><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#00FF00">Trade when you spot a pattern with high odds, </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">stay clear when the odds are low </font></em></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">This tool is designed to exploit short-term trading patterns, and intended for traders, arbitrage plays over time and to assist long-term investors in fine-tuning entry and exit points. It uses end-month data to illustrate seasonal trading patterns.</font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">A rise represents an increase in value. For bonds this means total return on benchmark ten-year government bonds (i.e. capital appreciation plus income earned). Volatility will be proportionately less for bonds of shorter maturity and may be higher for those of lower quality. </font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Each series shows the cumulative gain or loss as the year progresses. Thus, starting from zero at the beginning of the year, a 1% gain in January followed by a 2% gain in February show up as +3% for February. A fall of 1% during the next month would show up as +2% for March. </font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">In order to identify possible changes in behaviour patterns over time, separate series are shown for short, medium and long-term averages. The time-frames selected are 4, 12 and 24 years to reflect respectively one, three and six electoral cycles, as discussed in the <a href="Guidebook_global_investment_cycles.htm" target="_top">GuideBook</a>. The shorter the time-scale, the stronger the line, in recognition that more recent experience has greater significance. Thus </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FFFFFF">the white line</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> is the short-term series, the light grey line is the medium-term series and </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#808080">the dark grey line</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> is the long-term series. </font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">To indicate of the odds of making profits or losses in any month of the year, </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FFFFFF">white percentage figures</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> are attached to the longest time-scale. These odds are calculated using up to 24 years of data, where available. Thus, for example, 67% against a rising month shows that the changes of a profit in that month are 2 in 3. Equally 67% against a fall shows that the chances of a loss in that month are 2 in 3. Conversely 33% indicates that there is only 1 in 3 chance of making profits in that month. </font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">To achieve the most reliable results take action where all series demonstrate a similar seasonal pattern - especially where confirmed by the odds shown. Please note that bond charts show an upward bias throughout the year. This is due to the accumulation of interest in total returns.To adjust for this, look for changes relative to trend. In addition it may be helpful to study the charts comparing seasonal performance to a world averages, using the global perspectives. </font></strong></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">While the database is as comprehensive as possible, it does not cover all situations. In some cases the longer-term series in individual countries may be missing. Euro conversion renders analysis of bonds denominated in legacy currencies irrelevant.</font></p> <hr color="#FF0000"> <p align="center"><font size="2">[ <a href="global_asset_allocation_sitemap.htm" target="_top">Site Map</a> ] [ <a href="index.htm" target="_top">Home</a> ]</font><font size="2" face="Arial"><br> </font><font size="2">[ <a href="Chart_Library.htm" target="_top">Chart Library</a> ] [ <a href="ChartLibrary_government_bond.htm" target="_top">Bond Charts</a> ]</font> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p align="left"><font face="Arial Narrow" size="1" color="#C0C0C0">Copyright © 1999 Professional Investment Tools Ltd., authorised by the Financial Securities Authority. An Independent Financial Adviser. Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, Corel Corp., FIBV, Global Financial Data, PIT, national governments and stock exchanges. Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However PIT does not guarantee this to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising. This is for information only and does not constitute a solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Last modified: January 05, 2001</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>.</strong></font></p> </font mstheme></td></tr></table></body>