Summary forecasts for foreign currency

<body><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td> <font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> Summary </p> <p> </p> </font mstheme> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td valign="top" width="1%"><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> </p> </font mstheme></td><td valign="top" width="24"></td><td valign="top"> <p>This page uses frames, but your browser doesn't support them. </p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Forex: Summary</font></strong></p> <p><strong><em><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#00FF00">Buy on the up arrows,</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">sell on the down arrows</font></em></strong></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>This tool is designed to summarise the key action-orientated features of other currency analysis tools, omitting explanations for those who just want to see the bottom line. It incorporates both momentum Buy & Sell signals as well as a proprietary econometric forecasting model created by PIT. For this summary tool, foreign currency indexes are shown on a total return basis, including interest on short-term deposits. For comparability, they have been rebased to set year-end 1994 at 100.</strong></font></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">In each chart the historic total return currency index, </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FFFFFF">the thick white line</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">, and the econometric forecast, </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">the thin orange line</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">, are shown on the same scale and may be viewed from identical left- or right hand axis. The base level for the econometric forecast is the average for the currency index over the last completed calendar year. Chart  technical Buy & Sell signals are show as </font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#FF0000">red arrows</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"> embedded in the total return index.</font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">The econometric model incorporates analysis used in the currency tools for Yield and Spare Capacity. It is based on equations tested over a quarter century of historical data, where the projections depend on consensus forecasts for comparative interest rates and GDP. Depending on whether the investment perspective is Dollar-based or relative to a global benchmark, the relevant foreign data are those for the United States or a GDP weighted global average.</font></strong></p> <p><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>Please note that the performance pattern of total return foreign currency indexes may be radically different from price-only indexes. This occurs because the yield on high inflation currencies is often substantially greater than that needed to offset exchange rate depreciation. Thus Buy & Sell signals for total return indexes will not be the same as for price-only indexes.</strong></font></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">Owing to the conversion of legacy currencies into Euros, analysis is provided on the common currency, rather than for individual countries. Historical data is provided by creating synthetic GDP-weighted time-series for the component currencies, expressed in the European Currency Unit.</font></strong></p> <hr color="#FF0000"> <p align="center"><font size="2">[ <a href="global_asset_allocation_sitemap.htm" target="_top">Site Map</a> ] [ <a href="index.htm" target="_top">Home</a> ]</font><font size="2" face="Arial"><br> </font><font size="2">[ <a href="Chart_Library.htm" target="_top">Chart Library</a> ] [ <a href="ChartLibrary_foreign_currency.htm" target="_top">Forex Charts</a> ]</font> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p align="left"><font face="Arial Narrow" size="1" color="#C0C0C0">Copyright © 1999 Professional Investment Tools Ltd., authorised by the Financial Securities Authority. An Independent Financial Adviser. Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, Corel Corp., FIBV, Global Financial Data, PIT, national governments and stock exchanges. Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However PIT does not guarantee this to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising. This is for information only and does not constitute a solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Last modified: January 05, 2001</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>.</strong></font></p> </font mstheme></td></tr></table></body>