|
DEMOLAND |
| See Notes at
Right of Page |
|
|
|
Month End: |
|
|
Example of a Market Profile |
| |
|
Forecasts |
Summary |
Opinions |
History |
Structure |
Funds |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Earnings
Forecasts |
Since 1986 |
2008 a |
2009 a |
2010 e |
2011 e |
| EPS
(1995=100) |
|
186.9 |
227.7 |
270.8 |
122.0 |
| EPS Change
(%) |
10% |
10% |
22% |
19% |
-55% |
| Real EPS
Change (%) |
7% |
10% |
20% |
15% |
-56% |
| Relative EPS
Change (%) |
6% |
-12% |
20% |
7% |
-42% |
| PE Ratio |
29.1 |
14.3 |
15.5 |
7.0 |
15.5 |
| Relative PE
Ratio |
115% |
81% |
91% |
89% |
150% |
| Dollar / US$
Rate |
-1% |
1% |
0% |
-1% |
|
| Share Index
Change ($ %) |
2% |
20% |
9% |
-47% |
|
| Relative
Performance |
-8% |
0% |
-1% |
-5% |
|
| Summary |
Demoland experienced the most spectacular stock market bubble, as
the market rose 12 fold between 1986 and 1990. Opposition parties
were legalised in February 1982 and Demoland applied to join GATT in
January 1997. However the bubble came and went before |
| |
foreigners were allowed into the stock market. That process began in
1997 and proceeded through seven stages, so the country was only
given full weighting in global benchmark indices in February 2002.
Restrictions on portfolio investment were finally fully |
|
|
removed in August 2004. As their scarcity value has evaporated so
the premium ratings of Demoland shares has evaporated, leading to
under-performance of the stock market, despite relatively good
economic performance. |
| Investment
Opinions |
|
Local |
Dollar |
Global |
|
| |
|
Investors |
Investors |
Investors |
|
| |
Recommended Action |
Add |
Add |
Buy |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Trend
Strategies |
Forecast Revisions |
Sell |
Sell |
Sell |
|
| |
Liquidity Trends |
Sell |
Sell |
Sell |
|
| |
Chart Analysis |
Sell |
Sell |
Buy |
|
| |
Seasonal Patterns |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Investor
Sentiment |
Opinion (12 Months) |
Buy |
Buy |
Add |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Valuation
Ratios |
PE Ratio / Bond Yield |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
|
| |
PE Ratio / Interest Rate |
Buy |
Buy |
Hold |
|
| |
Market Cap. / GDP |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
|
| |
Real Earnings Yield |
Buy |
Buy |
Buy |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Key
Historical Events |
October-06 |
$24 Bill.
Stock market stabilisation fund |
|
| |
September-08 |
US
Banking Crisis |
|
|
| |
July-08 |
Foreign
investment curbs eased |
|
| |
March-08 |
Rightwing
coalition wins general election |
|
| |
November-07 |
Demoland
ETF listing |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Political
History |
For
investors the single most important political event was the general
election of April 1983, which ended six years of Liberal rule and
began 13 years of Labour rule, mainly with Hawke as PM. This
government initially brought in a Prices and Incomes rather than |
| |
adopting the deregulation policies, becoming popular in Anglo-Saxon
markets. |
| Growth &
Inflation |
There was a recession in 1974/75 due to the oil crises and global
economic downturn, but since then Demoland has managed to grow
through the world's and most recently the region's problems.
Inflation peaked at 21% in 1974. |
| Stock Market
History |
Foreign investors missed the excitement of the 1988 stock market
bubble driven by retail speculators, as the first limited
investments were only permitted in 1993, after the bubble had
collapsed. Since then there has been a steady uptrend and share
prices |
| |
reached their old highs but this performance was no more than
average by world standards, until the various emerging market
currency crises caused a new decline. Heavy exposure to technology
also caused under-performance since the Millennium. |
| Economic
Structure |
The economy of this country has a high exposure to manufacturing
which is 33% of GDP, and employs 35% of the workforce. Electrical
and electronic goods are the principal exports. |
| |
Economic Statistics |
Demoland |
World |
Period |
Source |
| |
Population Growth (%) |
1.0% |
0.5% |
2000-2005 |
UN |
| |
GDP Growth (%) |
6.2% |
2.3% |
1980-2006 |
UN |
| |
Rate of Inflation (%) |
2.8% |
3.4% |
1980-2006 |
UN |
| |
GDP per Head (US$) |
$27,700 |
$34,600 |
2005 |
UN |
| |
Agriculture / GDP (%) |
3% |
1% |
2006 |
CIA |
| |
Industry / GDP (%) |
45% |
24% |
2006 |
CIA |
| |
Services / GDP (%) |
52% |
74% |
2006 |
CIA |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Political
System |
Demoland has governed under a democratic system since 1975, when
life membership of the Upper Chamber was abolished. The President is
elected by the Parliament every four years. |
| President
Election: |
N/A |
Govt. System: |
Parliamentary |
Orientation: |
Rightwing |
| Parliament
Election: |
Mar/2012 |
Election Cycle: |
4 Years |
Administration: |
Coalition |
| Market
Structure |
Like many regional rivals, Demoland has substantial participation by
retail investors. Owing to limits on foreign ownership, that are
slowly being dismantled, foreign institutions had not played an
important role in the market. The country largely escaped the
emerging markets |
| |
owing to its relative isolation and traditional positive balance of
payments. |
| Volatility
of |
Correlation |
Market Cap Weighting |
GDP Weighting |
| Monthly
Returns |
with Global Index |
Region |
World |
Region |
World |
|
10.6% |
21% |
8% |
1% |
9% |
1% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Funds
Available |
Sponsor |
Symbol |
Listing |
Type |
Liquidity |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
MSCI Demoland |
iShares |
0 |
AMEX |
Index |
*** |
| Demoland
Fund |
Demoland Securities |
XYZ |
NYSE |
Managed |
** |
| Demoland
Trust |
ABC Bank |
ABC |
London |
Managed |
** |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Copyright © 2010: Investors RouteMap Ltd.,
an Appointed Representative of Integral Asset Management Ltd, which
is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority to
carry out investment business in the United Kingdom. Please read
Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply
exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, CFTC, FIBV,
Global Financial Data, national governments and stock exchanges.
Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be
reliable and accurate. However the company does not guarantee this
to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising.
These tables are for information only and do not constitute a
solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to
change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. |