Forecasting US Dollar exchange rates

<body><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td> <font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> Financial Forecasting </p> <p> </p> </font mstheme> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td valign="top" width="1%"><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p> </p> </font mstheme></td><td valign="top" width="24"></td><td valign="top"> <p>NO FRAMES VERSION:  </p> <p><strong><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2">Financial Forecasting</font></strong></p> <p><strong><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2">This hedgehog chart illustrates the way our financial forecasting works. </font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><font color="#C0C0C0">The </font><font color="#FFFFFF">thick white line</font></font><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2"> </font><font color="#C0C0C0"><font size="2"><font face="Arial Narrow">in this example </font></font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2">i</font></font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0">s the  exchange rate of the US Dollar   against the global benchmark, IMF Special Drawing Rights. We use this example as the best proxy for global exchange rate movements .</font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><font color="#C0C0C0">The </font><font color="#FFFF00">thin yellow line</font><font color="#C0C0C0"> is the forecast derived from econometric modelling for the average exchange rate during the year, based on figures for key economic variables, actual to 1998 and based on consensus forecasts for 1999 and 2000 as at mid year 1999.</font></font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><font color="#C0C0C0">The </font><font color="#FF0000">thick orange line</font><font color="#C0C0C0"> is the exchange rate forecast, converted into a moving average, such that inflection points are shown at year end.</font></font></strong></p> <p><strong><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2"><font color="#C0C0C0">The </font><font color="#FF0000">broken red line</font><font color="#C0C0C0"> is the exchange rate forecast that would have arisen at the beginning of each year, had the key economic variables been forecast correctly for the year.</font></font></strong></p> <p><strong><font color="#C0C0C0" face="Arial Narrow" size="2">As you can see, in this particular example, the score over 25 years was 18 wins, 3 losses and 4 draws.</font></strong></p> <hr color="#FF0000"> <p align="center"><strong><font size="2">[ <a href="global_asset_allocation_sitemap.htm" target="_top">Site Map</a> ] [ <a href="index.htm" target="_top">Home</a> ] [ <a href="TestStation_market_timing_record.htm" target="_top">Lab Tests </a>]</font></strong></p> <p align="left"><font face="Arial Narrow" size="1" color="#C0C0C0">Copyright © 1999 Professional Investment Tools Ltd., authorised by the Financial Services Authority to carry out investment business in the United Kingdom. Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Main sources: Consensus Economics, Corel Corp., FIBV, PIT and national governments. Last modified: April 29, 2004</font></p> <p><strong><font size="3"> </font> </strong> </td></tr></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td><font face="garamond, times new roman, times" mstheme> <p align="left"><font face="Arial Narrow" size="1" color="#C0C0C0">Copyright © 1999 Professional Investment Tools Ltd., authorised by the Financial Services Authority. Independent Financial Adviser (UK) and member of Investorside Research Association (US). Please read Financial Health Warning and Licence Agreement. UK laws apply exclusively. Principal sources: Consensus Economics, Corel Corp., FIBV, Global Financial Data, PIT, national governments and stock exchanges. Information and opinions are based on sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However PIT does not guarantee this to be the case, and does not accept liability for any loss arising. This is for information only and does not constitute a solicitation to deal in any securities. Opinions are liable to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Last modified: April 29, 2004</font><font face="Arial Narrow" size="2" color="#C0C0C0"><strong>.</strong></font></p> </font mstheme></td></tr></table></body>