Reverse Forward

Visitor: There is more to valuing shares than long-term bond yields. Where do profits come in?

RouteMaster: Indeed. We have another type of chart that combines the two. This rearranges the PE formula to calculate Fair Value for shares by combining short-term interest rates and long-term bond yields, where available, with an index of Earnings per Share that we have recreated for each market. It doesn't matter if you don't fully grasp the mechanics. Investors RouteMap is built so you can easily understand the conclusion in a chart.

Incidentally have you spotted our colour coding – indexes are white, variables are yellow (and light green) and Best Guesses are orange (and pink), while buy & sell signals are red arrows.

Here you can see that shares had gone up a long way with justification, but that the fair value indicator has nowe turned down, suggesting the latest rise has taken the  market into overvalued territory.


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