Visitor: Do you analyse anything that doesn't rely on forecasts?
RouteMaster: Yes. We have experimented extensively with monetary variables, on the basis that these may be leading indicators for asset markets and so we developed Buy / Sell signals based on Liquidity.
We found that the best fit varies between different asset classes and investment perspectives, which we can discuss at another time, but again the chart format is standardised, so you can easily see the relationship, without needing to understand the precise formulation. For this particular chart we found that inverted interest rates were the basis for the best liquidity variable.If you care to have a look at the Test Results again you can see that this kind of analysis produces some very good results.
This chart shows that there has been a good correlation between the direction of interest rates and the performance of the stock market over a very long time.
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