STOCK MARKET TRACK RECORD
Page Summary: Back-tested performance simulation of tactical asset allocation in Stock Markets
| Reality Check A full report on actual performance of all strategies since going live in April 2000 is available by email for institutional investors and financial advisors only. Please include company name for verification
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Understanding the Bar Chart - This chart the standard deviation of monthly returns for those investing strategies that have been back-tested together with a comparable global benchmark. For descriptions of these strategies see Composite Trend Indicator, Liquidity, Momentum and Seasonal Pattern Understanding the Fan Chart - This chart shows the simulated performance of recommendations, where all markets are graded into Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell quartiles based on the Composite Trend Indicator. Thus, where the gradient is steeper the strategy is more successful and where the gradient flattens the strategy is less successful. The chart uses these features to maximise fairness: -
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Results assume that investors have the courage to act on their convictions decisively Statistical Notes |
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- Local Currency - Performance in different local currencies for each market. Relevant for domestic investors.
- US Dollar - Performance in a common currency, the US Dollar. Relevant for international investors.
- Relative to World - Performance compared to a market weighted global benchmark. Relevant for fund managers.
- Liquidity - Fundamental strategy based on actual monetary data show direction of government policy.
- Momentum - Chart technical strategy combining momentum, rate of change and overbought / oversold indicators.
- Seasons - Strategy based on buying and selling each market at the end of the same month every year
- Composite - Strategy of combining Liquidity, Momentum and Seasonal strategies by majority decision
Explanation of Rows
- Buy - Average annualised capital gains and income before expenses for all positively rated markets *
- Hold - Average annualised performance for a comparable market weighted global index
- Sell - Average annualised capital gains and income before expenses for all negatively rated markets *
- Signals per Year - Average number of changes each year in each market, e.g. 2..0 means Buy and Sell once a year
* The tabular analysis is based on rating all markets either as Buy or Sell at all times, where meaningful data is available, with no markets rated as Hold. Thus Buy in the table represents the combined performance of Buy and Add model portfolios shown in the chart above, and conversely for Sell recommendations.